Bibliography: (In order of most current to oldest post)

American Red Cross Response to Doug Copp:

http://www.bpaonline.org/Emergencyprep/arc-on-doug-copp.html

Triangle of Life:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_of_Life

Collapsing Buildings = major cause of death:

http://science.jrank.org/pages/2224/Earthquake-Collapse-buildings.html :

http://eqseis.geosc.psu.edu/~cammon/HTML/Classes/IntroQuakes/Notes/earthquake_effects.html :

http://pager.world-housing.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/Pomonis_Antonios.pdf :


Coincidental email:
http://www.amerrescue.org/

Quakesafe Introduction:

  (http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/quake-victims/) 

(http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/christchurch-earthquake-2011/4801597/Seven-more-names-of-earthquake-victims-out)

Qualitative evidence from our investigation.

Experiment Process:
We have just completed our investigation into whether or not the 'Triangle of life' void-identification theory is valid.

Our plan was to test if a 'pancake collapse', where the upper structure of a building falls onto the lower structure, would result in triangles being formed by the rubble in a classroom.
We initially constructed our model of a classroom in a cardboard box. In the bottom of the box, we placed a sheet of white paper. On top of that we placed carbon paper, with the intention that the falling 'rubble' would make marks on the white sheet where it hit the 'floor' of the model room, so we could analyse the way the rubble fell.. We placed four model tables in our model room, two were constructed to model sturdy desks (they were made of thick cardboard and the support structure of the desk was well built) and the other two were constructed to model weak school desks (they had light tops - one made of card and the other made of a thin sheet of aluminium drink can material - supported by thin legs made of bamboo skewers).
These were placed in the model room, along with a model book cabinet secured to the wall.

However, we quickly decided that this set-up had a major flaw; we could not see into the sides of the box to examine how the model rubble had fallen. So after only one trial (when we realised this flaw), we made a quick trip across the campus and found a fish tank to model a room, which we could photograph through the sides of.

We reset the model scene and proceeded to simulate our first 'pancake collapse', with bamboo skewers placed horizontally :

As you can see, the bamboo skewers had almost no effect on the model desks. But still, the skewers formed a lot of supporting structures around the desks, which indicates that the 'triangle of life' theory may be valid.

To examine the theory more closely, we changed the bamboo skewers to sheets of ice, which may crack and shatter just like concrete structures.

We repeated such experiment with ice sheets of different thickness (i.e. different mass).

Every time we can find some triangles formed around our model tables. For the weak tables which got tipped over, there was no chance for people to survive if hiding under them. Meanwhile, except for the last experiment in which one table got a little crushed, all the sturdy tables remained concrete in other experiments, which indicates that the 'duke and cover' method can remain useful in the cases which the covering is sturdy enough.

According to our original plan, we also wanted to use ice sheets frozen with cheese cloth to model concrete stuctures constructed with steel frames in them. However, we found this idea was unpractical since the ice can be hardly broken in such cases. We could even plunge metal rods through the sheets without breaking them. So this part of the plan was given up.

Conclusions and evaluations:

According to our modelling and experiment, we basically derived the following conclusions:

1) If one can find a sturdy structure as a cover, the 'duke and cover' method is apparently useful. However, if the cover is not sturdy enough, it may get tipped over or crushed so that the action of hiding oneself under a weak table is a kind of 'suiciding'.

2)In an earthquake there are some 'triangles of life' forming around tables or other structures. However, we still possess doubts towards such method because the forming of triangles are more or less a matter of chance in most cases. There is no certain pattern for the place where they may form, or in other words that one can hardly judge where to find such a place that triangles will form. Also it requires time to judge where may a triangle occur which may cause delaying in hiding in a real earthquake, and that is fatal in a real disaster. So although it seems that there's such a possibility for people adapting this method to survive, it is not a best choice. However if it's in a situation where no sturdy furnitures can be found, this method of 'triangle of life' is still recommended since there's still possibility for people adapting such method to survive.

Limitations:

One thing I have to emphasize here is that there is a tremenduous uncertainty in our experiment. We modelled a room and cracked ice sheets over it, but such modelling cannot cover all the real life situations. In real life situations, the meterial of the furniture, the meterial of the architecture(crispy or not, massive or not), even the settings and arrangement and indensity of the furnitures can make a difference (a room with indensely arranged tables is less likely to undergo a 'pancake collapse' than a room with only one or two tables inside). Any small and seemingly unimportant factor may have some effects in a complicated real-life situation so it's really hard to tell. There can hardly  be any two identical situations, which require each single case should be treated differntly.

In our experiment, the modelling may also contains some uncertainty. The ice sheets is essentially not the same as concrete, nor concrete with steel frames. Even it can model concrete to some degree, it's hard to tell whether or not it can model wooden structures. The same problems happen with the modelling of furnitures as well. Furthermore, different structures of house (flat topped? slope topped?) cannot be examined in this experiment. And our way of breaking the ice with metal rods is obviously not the same as the way in which an earthquake destroy a house. In a real-life earthquake, the buldings would shake up and down first and then horizontally, which our modelling didn't fully express. Also different earthquake may cause different damage even to a same room and it's hard to predict the way the bulding collapse.

So combining all these together, we can only say that our experiment can only indicate that the 'triangle of life' theory may be good in some situations (especially without sturdy furniture) while 'duke and cover' seems to be more reliable in the situations with certain conditions (i.e. sturdy furniture). However, it requires more analysis and test to know whether or not these method can work. Our experiment is just a primary test.

American Red Cross response to Doug Copp.

Doug Copp, the main proponent of the 'triangle of life' theory, is an extremely controversial figure. There is a lot discussion, rebuts, corrections and even open slandering of him and his theories on the internet. This is mainly due to the fact that his articles have claimed that an earthquake will usually cause a 'pancake collapse', where the roof/ upper floors' structure simply falls onto the foundation of the building, and that this immense weight of timber, steel or concrete can crush objects. These objects, such as tables or desks, are what a person performing the 'Drop Cover and Hold on" survival method would be likely to be sheltering under. The problem with Copp's advice is that it is misleading for some populations, depending upon where they live and what kind of infrastructure is common in their area. This response from the American Red Cross to Copp's theory outlines why the triangle of life survival method is not as safe as the 'Drop Cover and Hold on' method in most US buildings: http://www.bpaonline.org/Emergencyprep/arc-on-doug-copp.html

 For example, here is a photo of the classroom which we were carrying out our experiment in on Wednesday:

As can be seen in this image, our roof, in fact the entire building, is made from timber. The ceiling consists of wooden planks inside and wooden shingles outside of the timber frame. The tables which fill the classroom are made of timber which is about 5cm thick and they are supported by sturdy steel frames. 

It would make no sense  in this room to lie next to the desks during an earthquake, you would simply be injured by the falling glass, lights and wooden boards. Just my banging a fist on one the tables, it is clear that  falling material from the structure above would be unlikely to to break through to anyone hiding underneath, so it makes more sense to lie underneath the tables to avoid injury.

However, it seems plausible that if our roof was made from a more dense material, perhaps concrete, that falling material could cause the tables to be damaged, or even crushed if the falling piece was large enough. According to Copp's theory, this would result in a compacted table (crushing anyone underneath), which would act a support for the concrete slab, leaving a void by it's side where the concrete was supported from the ground. Potentially, a person could survive in this void until rescue. Whether or not this actually occurs is what our experiment seeks to model.

Triangle of Life

Here's a brief introduction to this theory: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangle_of_Life
Generally, it's really hard to tell whther this theory is just pseudo science or an unaccepted truth. In different corners of the world with different structure of architectures, it's kind of impossible to set up a universal safe rule. But anyway, we'd like to check it out. So we set up a fishtank, with several model desks inside. And then... we poured different meterials on them. We tried wooden sticks and wooden bars. Considering the roofs may collapse, our final choice of material for roofs is large sheets of ice... In today's experiment, it seems that for our sturdy desks, hiding under them and in the triangle areas are both safe. Sometimes there would be space at the corner of the walls as well. But for the fragile desks, no matter staying under it or beside it, things would always get crushed. However, in the last experiment with ice which was 20mm thick, one of the sturdy tables also get crushed, but still with a triangular space beside it. Tomorrow we'll try another set of experiment with ice frozen with cheesecloth in it, mimicing concrete with steels. Although this experiment is not really accurate due to the models and unreal materials, but still we hope it can reveal a glimpse of the objective laws.

Collapsing buildings = Major cause of death.

During an earthquake, what causes loss of life? We think it would be useful to verify our assumption that collapsing buildings/ falling rubble is a major cause of death and/or injury. Detailed below is some of the research which we have found online.


Here is a useful excerpt from http://science.jrank.org/pages/2224/Earthquake-Collapse-buildings.html :



"To construct a house or building under static conditions, the materials need only to be stacked up, attached to each other, and balanced. These kinds of buildings are not designed to accelerate rapidly and change directions like cars or airplanes. Buildings in seismically active areas, however, must be designed and built to withstand the dynamic acceleration that can occur during an earthquake. Large buildings and structures such as bridges, in particular, must be designed so that vibrations arising from earthquakes are damped and not amplified.
Because noticeable earthquakes are rare in most areas, people may not recognize that the objects and buildings around them represent potential hazards. It is not movement of the ground surface alone that kills people. Instead, deaths from earthquakes result from the collapse of buildings and falling objects in them, fires, and tsunamis. The type of construction that causes the most fatal injuries in earthquakes is unreinforced brick, stone, or concrete buildings that tend not to be flexible and to collapse when shaken.
The most earthquake-resistant type of home is a low wooden structure that is anchored to its foundation and sheathed with thick plywood. Some of the traditional architecture of Japan approximates this shock-resistant design, including wooden buildings that are more than a thousand years old. Unfortunately, wood and paper houses can be easily ignited in the fires that are common after large earthquakes. Both unreinforced masonry and shock-resistant wood houses are used by different cultures in areas of high earthquake risk."



Here is another excerpt, from http://eqseis.geosc.psu.edu/~cammon/HTML/Classes/IntroQuakes/Notes/earthquake_effects.html :

"The first step in preparing structures for shaking is to understand how buildings respond to ground motions- this is the field of study for earthquake and structural engineers. When the ground shakes, buildings respond to the accelerations transmitted from the ground through the structure's foundation. The inertia of the building (it wants to stay at rest) can cause shearing of the structure which can concentrate stresses on the weak walls or joints in the structure resulting in failure or perhaps total collapse. The type of shaking and the frequency of shaking depends on the structure. Tall buildings tend to amplify the motions of longer period motions when compared with small buildings. Each structure has a resonance frequency that is characteristic of the building. Predicting the precise behavior of buildings is complicated, a rule of thumb is that the period of resonance is about equal to 0.1 times the number of stories in the structure. Thus Macelwane Hall resonates at about 0.3 seconds period, and Griesedeck at about 1.4 seconds. Taller buildings also tend to shake longer than short buildings, which can make them relatively more susceptible to damage. Fortunately many tall buildings are constructed to withstand strong winds and some precautions have been taken to reduce their tendency to shake. And they can be made resistant to earthquake vibrations. In many regions of limited resources and/or old structures, the structures are not very well suited to earthquake induced strains and collapse of adobe-style construction has caused thousands of deaths in the last decade. The worst possible structure for earthquake regions is the unreinforced masonry (which is common in the St. Louis area)."

Here is a third useful source, "SEISMIC VULNERABILITY AND COLLAPSE PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT 

OF BUILDINGS IN GREECE", from the Second International Workshop on Disaster Casualties in  June 2009, http://pager.world-housing.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/Pomonis_Antonios.pdf :

"The PAGER methodology therefore aims to rapidly  estimate human casualties from earthquakes based on the fact that most earthquake fatalities around the globe are linked to the collapse of buildings (Allen et al., 2009). A study into the causes of death from earthquakes in the period 1900-1999 (1.6 million victims worldwide) estimated that approximately 70-75% of lives were lost due to building collapse, while the remaining 25-30% due to other causes such as, tsunami, landslides and fire following the seismic event (Spence, 2003). This continues to be the case to this day despite the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami which killed 228,000 people, because an additional 240,000 building-collapse-related deaths took place in the 2000-2008 period, bringing the total life loss in the 1900-2008 period to nearly 2.15 million people (assuming that the loss of life in the 1976 Tangshan earthquake is as officially reported (243,000) instead of unofficial estimates of as many as 655,000 deaths)."

Coincidental Email

After choosing our G4 project question it, I found it coincidental when a few days after the Japan earthquake I received this forwarded email from my grandfather. After successive natural disasters such as the earthquake in New Zealand, then in Japan it is interesting how such articles are quickly spread over the internet. 

This is simply one person's view on earthquake safety.

Where to Go During an Earthquake
Remember that stuff about hiding under a table or standing in a doorway? Well, forget it! This is a real eye opener. It could save your life someday.

EXTRACT FROM DOUG COPP'S ARTICLE ON 'THE TRIANGLE OF LIFE'

My name is Doug Copp. I am the Rescue Chief and Disaster Manager of the American Rescue Team International (ARTI ), the world's most experienced rescue team. The information in this article will save lives in an earthquake.

I have crawled inside 875 collapsed buildings, worked with rescue teams from 60 countries, founded rescue teams in several countries, and I am a member of many rescue teams from many countries. I was the United Nations expert in Disaster Mitigation for two years, and have worked at every major disaster in the world since 1985, except for simultaneous disasters.

The first building I ever crawled inside of was a school in Mexico City during the 1985 earthquake. Every child was under its desk. Every child was crushed to the thickness of their bones. They could have survived by lying down next to their desks in the aisles. It was obscene -- unnecessary.

Simply stated, when buildings collapse, the weight of the ceilings falling upon the objects or furniture inside crushes these objects, leaving a space or void next to them - NOT under them. This space is what I call the 'triangle of life'. The larger the object, the stronger, the less it will compact. The less the object compacts, the larger the void, the greater the probability that the person who is using this void for safety will not be injured. The next time you watch collapsed buildings, on television, count the 'triangles' you see formed. They are everywhere. It is the most common shape, you will see, in a collapsed building. 
TIPS FOR EARTHQUAKE SAFETY
1) Most everyone who simply 'ducks and covers' when building collapse are crushed to death. People who get under objects, like desks or cars, are crushed.

2) Cats, dogs and babies often naturally curl up in the fetal position. You should too in an earthquake. It is a natural safety/survival instinct. You can survive in a smaller void. Get next to an object, next to a sofa, next to a bed, next to a large bulky object that will compress slightly but leave a void next to it.

3) Wooden buildings are the safest type of construction to be in during an earthquake. Wood is flexible and moves with the force of the earthquake. If the wooden building does collapse, large survival voids are created. Also, the wooden building has less concentrated, crushing weight. Brick buildings will break into individual bricks. Bricks will cause many injuries but less squashed bodies than concrete slabs.

4) If you are in bed during the night and an earthquake occurs, simply roll off the bed. A safe void will exist around the bed. Hotels can achieve a much greater survival rate in earthquakes, simply by posting a sign on the back of the door of every room telling occupants to lie down on the floor, next to the bottom of the bed during an earthquake.

5) If an earthquake happens and you cannot easily escape by getting out the door or window, then lie down and curl up in the fetal position next to a sofa, or large chair.

6) Most everyone who gets under a doorway when buildings collapse is killed. How? If you stand under a doorway and the doorjamb falls forward or backward you will be crushed by the ceiling above. If the door jam falls sideways you will be cut in half by the doorway. In either case, you will be killed!

7) Never go to the stairs. The stairs have a different 'moment of frequency' (they swing separately from the main part of the building). The stairs and remainder of the building continuously bump into each other until structural failure of the stairs takes place. The people who get on stairs before they fail are chopped up by the stair treads - horribly mutilated. Even if the building doesn't collapse, stay away from the stairs. The stairs are a likely part of the building to be damaged. Even if the stairs are not collapsed by the earthquake, they may collapse later when overloaded by fleeing people. They should always be checked for safety, even when the rest of the building is not damaged.

8) Get near the outer walls of buildings or outside of them if possible - It is much better to be near the outside of the building rather than the interior. The farther inside you are from the outside perimeter of the building the greater the probability that your escape route will be blocked.

9) People inside of their vehicles are crushed when the road above falls in an earthquake and crushes their vehicles; which is exactly what happened with the slabs between the decks of the Nimitz Freeway. The victims of the San Francisco earthquake all stayed inside of their vehicles. They were all killed. They could have easily survived by getting out and sitting or lying next to their vehicles. Everyone killed would have survived if they had been able to get out of their cars and sit or lie next to them. All the crushed cars had voids 3 feet high next to them, except for the cars that had columns fall directly across them.

10) I discovered, while crawling inside of collapsed newspaper offices and other offices with a lot of paper, that paper does not compact. Large voids are found surrounding stacks of paper. 

Source:
http://www.amerrescue.org/

Quakesafe Introduction

As an earthquake strikes, what can you do? Where is the safest place go? Should you stay still? When the terrible earthquake of a 8.9 magnitude hit Japan, March 15, 2011, thousands of people were killed due to a variety of reasons. A major cause of death in earthquakes is falling rubble of collapsing buildings.
For example, in the recent Christchurch Earthquake in New Zealand, almost the entire central business district was razed. The 6.3 magnitude quake struck at 12:51pm, while the city was full of workers. Hundreds of people were trapped within the rubble of two large buildings alone and this was the main cause of the 182 deaths.


As a group we decided for our group 4 project to explore the question, "What is the safest place in a room during an earthquake", not necessarily to come up with an answer to this question but to see what sort of answers are already available, see what people in our school community already know about earthquake safety and finally draft a conclusion based on the scientific research and opinions available to us.


Between us we already have a general knowledge, or rather basic education, of general earthquake safety. We have been told to do many things, some contradictory to each other. They include: standing in door ways, crouching under a solid table, curling up in the foetal position, standing by an elevator shaft, getting outside quickly and getting away from glass.


From now on, this blog will be dedicated to our research into this question, experiments, and any information we come across. Hopefully it will provide valuable knowledge for us and anyone who reads this.


Sources:

  (http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/quake-victims/) 

(http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/christchurch-earthquake-2011/4801597/Seven-more-names-of-earthquake-victims-out)